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We are entering the 15`th week of a Primary cycle which started on Feb 9, 2018. We may have seen the nominal 6th week trough on April 2nd. We are in a surprising move up starting on May 3rd, a strong Doji. Nevertheless, we should be looking for the end of the current Primary cycle (the nominal 18-week cycle). 18 weeks is pointing to the week of June 11 but remember it could land between 15 weeks and 21 weeks.
There is also a 9-year cycle due although the current nominal 7-year cycle may have expanded into the 9-year cycle.
The current 4 year cycle for the SP500 started on Feb 11, 2016. We should be looking for a 15.5 month cycle low. There are typically 3 - 15.5 month cycles in the 4 year cycles.
The 4 year may have 3 -15.5 month cycles and / or 2 - 23 month cycles (a half cycle).
For the SP500
The following weekly chart of the SP500 shows the 4 year cycle (blue) and the ½ cycle of 23 months (red).
For the DJIA
The following weekly chart of the DJIA shows the 4 year cycle (blue) and the 15.5 month (red). There are approx. 3 - 15.5 month in the Primary cycle.
The Primary cycle that started on Feb 9th may form an ending trough near the middle of June.
We may be trending down into a low in that mid June timeframe.
Starting now be prepared for more serious events from now through June 2018. These could be violent events in the mid-East and events involving Russia, China and the US.. This may involve Syria and quite possibly other war like activity in Pakistan and India. We may also see increased earthquakes and volcanic activity. North Korea does not appear to be a problem.
The 15 day sma is below price and above the 45 day sma.. The SP500 may be looking at a turn down.
Some of the cycles that are coming due are:
- The Primary Cycle (nominal 18 week) on Feb 9th.
- 9 month cycle
- 9 year
- 5 week.
The Primary Cycles
The SP500 seems to be weakening. It hit the 38.2%, starting on May 14th and has since been moving down.
If the SP500 is going to retest the Feb 9th low and move lower we may see a more dramatic move over the next few weeks. War like activity is going to have a negative effect on stocks but probably a beneficial effect on precious metals.
I’m looking for a more dramatic move in mid-June (June 21, 2018) where we have Pluto conjunct the heliocentric nodes of Pluto. This is the second of a 3-pass. This is also getting close to a lunar and solar eclipses. More on the eclipses in a future post. Mid July may be another dramatic event.
On a shorter term basis I track a 27 cd (calendar day) cycle which will be due May 3rd. The 27 cd cycle is the red vertical lines.
9 Year Cycle
As an example of the DJIA following is a weekly chart of the Dow Jones and the 9 year cycle. As we’ve said many times longer term cycles coming due often distorts the faster moving cycles.
The 9 month cycle
The above chart shows the 9 month or 39 week cycle (blue vertical lines). It was due and appears to have formed in late January. The 20 week cycle was added as well (red vertical lines). Any green lines are a combination of the 20 and 40 week cycles.
From the last few posts:
“This coming year could see an increase in geophysical activity, both earthquakes and volcanos.”
Following are the significant earthquakes (> 6.0) so far in January 2018.
Jan 23 Alaska 7.9
Jan 10 Honduras 7.5
Jan 14 Peru 7.1
Jan 19 Mexico 6.3
Jan 21 Chile 6.3
Jan 25 Russia 6.2
Feb 16 Mexico 7.2
Feb 25 Papua New Guinea 7.5
Mar 6 Papua New Guinea 6.7
Mar 8 Papua New Guinea 6.8
Mar 24 Papua New Guinea 6.3
Mar 24 Southeast Indian Ridge 6.3
Mar 25 Indonesia 6.4
Mar 26 Papua New Guinea 6.6
Mar 29 Papua New Guinea 6.9
Apr 2 Bolivia 6.8
Apr 7 Papua New Guinea 6.3
Apr 10 Chile 6.2
Apr 19 Prince Edward Island 6.0
May 5 Tajikistan 6.2
May 5 Papua New Guinea 6.0
There has been a number of volcano’s erupting as well. Japan and Hawaii.
On a longer term basis the following monthly chart of the DJIA shows the 15 year cycle (red vertical lines) and the 45 year cycle (blue lines). The 15 year is due now, the 45 year due in Sept 2019. This is another example of a longer term cycle possibly distorting shorter term cycles. Bear in mind they need a broad orb.
In follow up to Uranus above.
Uranus will go retrograde and then move backward into Aries before Uranus enters Taurus for good. This may also be a problem in currencies and rates.
The above combination, with Saturn, could be defining problems / restrictions for the general population, particularly the mature population (pensions?) and with the Sun could affect the President or other leaders. This combination could affect a number of years in the future as Saturn is in a sign for approx. 2 ½ years. Other conditions this may highlight are State funerals, public sorrow and disappointment in general. State assets could be affected as well as industries connected to metals and mining.
The following monthly chart of the DJIA shows when Saturn has been in Capricorn (red x’s). Notice they have all had significant drops.
There could be some type of surprise coming in 2018 from the government or exposing something from the past. There could also be a major breakdown in world affairs or leaders.
The following daily chart of the SP500 shows the Jupiter price line (blue) and the Sun/Earth price line (green). Both of these price lines have a history of providing support and resistance.
When the two lines cross we often see a big range day or reversal. Note how price went down and stopped on the Sun / Earth Price Line. There was a another big range day on April 6th.
I continue to watch the 24th harmonic cycle (360 / 24) cycles for short term turns. The brown squares are Sun / Saturn 24 degrees on the following daily chart. The blue vertical lines are 24 cd’s (calendar days).
The last hit was March 29, 2018 and was a big range day. The next dates are May 14, 2018 then June 27th. I have added 3 price lines to this chart.
- Saturn – black
- Uranus – purple
- Neptune - light blue
Note, on May 14 price moved up and was stopped at the Neptune price line (light blue).
Note the date, Feb 9th, 2018 was the day of the low and a big range day.
These price lines can act as support / resistance. It has been at highs and lows. Note also when they cross often gets a reaction in price on a short-term basis. Also note, near the top of the chart is a light blue line. This is the Neptune Price Line.
Gold started a new Primary cycle on December 12. From December 12 we are entering the 22nd week of a Primary cycle. Watch Gold closely here, we may have put in a shortened Primary cycle on March 1 or we are in the process of putting in a Primary cycle low in Gold now.
Gold is being affected by movement in the US$ and the Yuan.
The blue vertical lines are the 40 trading day cycle.
Gold has been moving up as the US$ has moved down. Since Gold broke below 1309, watch for resistance around 1322.
Watch for Gold to make a move higher in the coming week. May 22-23 are possible dates for a change in trend. Hopefully higher.
Price has moved below the 15 and below the 45 day sma. The 15 sma and 45 day sma have crossed and appeared to roll over last week.
The longer term.7.4 Year cycle is shown in the following weekly chart. Note we are still relatively early in the latest 7.4 year cycle.
The following chart shows a 27 cd (calendar day) cycle (blue vertical lines). The next being June 4, 2018. The Moon takes 27 days to orbit the Earth and the Sun takes 27 days to revolve once at the Sun’s equator.
The red lines headed up are the Mars price lines. Gold has been moving sideways since January 2018 and have found both resistance and support at the Mars price line. The darker red Mars lines are the main aspect. Moving below the dark red Mars price line was bearish now we need to move above the darker red Mars price line. It may hit resistance. Price did not go through the next Mars price line. Last week it bounced off the Mars price line. Gold found support at the current Mars price line at 1285.10.
The small x’s on the chart show when heliocentric Mercury is in Sagittarius.
Looking at this whole chart it is based on a 24 harmonic. If you count each line from one darker red line to the next you will find there are 15 of them. 15 * 24 degrees = 360 degrees. Note price went down to Dec 12 where it bounced off a Mars Price Line.
The following daily chart of Gold shows the days Mars is entering a new sign (red squares). Look at this using +- 3 td’s (trading days). The last date was May 15. These can be at highs or lows. Dec 8 was Mars entering Scorpio the sign that it rules. Note on the chart, Mars changing signs, to any sign, often has a change in trend in Gold price.. The last red circle shows Mars entering Sagittarius on January 26th. The next sign was Mars entering Capricorn on March 17th. Expect a change in trend. Then mark down May 15th as the next time Mars changes signs. This may mark a high or a low. This is one day before Uranus changes signs and enters Taurus. Mars will change signs again on August 10th.
Following is a daily chart of an Envelope Channel chart based on centered 20 and 40 day channels.. These are the red and blue lines. In addition the light brown lines are the Geocentric Bradley indicator which is pointing to a turn (change in trend) near May 18 or May 20th.
We were looking at February 9th as being the trough of the Primary cycle. We are entering the 14th week. Crude price has moved above both the 45 day sma and 15 day sma and is now above the January 25th high. This is as high as Crude has been since 2014.
There are many issues with Crude. The new Shanghai crude exchanged opened on March 26. This should have a negative effect of the Petrodollar (US Dollar) and possibly cause the US to lose it’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Watch this over the next few weeks / months. As Crude is sold in Yuan, purchasers are given the option to exchange Yuan to Gold. Yes there is a relatively new Gold exchange as well. They sell physical Gold rather than paper Gold as is often the case in the US.
On the following daily chart of Crude note the green lines sloping up. This is the price line for the Sun/Earth. The blue lines moving horizontal are the Pluto price lines (blue). The Pluto price line acted as support on March 1st and 2nd and again on March 9th, although on March 9th crude made a strong move during the day.
Price has been moving up this week and stopped at the Pluto price line (blue).
Note how price often follows the Sun price line up and often stops and reverses at the Pluto price line. We often get big range days when the two lines cross, like October 27th.and Nov 22 and recently March 23rd. and May 11th.
May 25 has both Jupiter and Neptune in a trine. These planets are the 2 rulers of crude, and may have a positive effect on crude or at least a change in trend at that time. This is a peaceful signature but remember we still have Mars / Uranus aspects that are active.